Friday, January 6, 2017

Complete Playoff Ranks

via RotoWorld/Jeff Brubach

Now that the regular season has officially come to a close, fantasy footballers who are still itching for action can look to NFL postseason playoff contests to provide an extra month of sweet fantasy competition.

NFL postseason fantasy contests come in all shapes and sizes from actual snake drafts or auctions, to salary cap challenges and contests with weekly lineup submissions. No matter how you and your pals decide to attack the NFL postseason, the fantasy goodness will continue through Super Bowl LI. The primary objective in any postseason pool is to select players that will score the most points in the most games. Sounds easy, right? While selecting the highest-scoring fantasy stars sounds relatively simple following 17 weeks of fantasy football action, determining which teams will advance through the postseason bracket and clash in Houston in early February is quite a challenge. I wouldn’t be staring at a mountain of student loan debt if I could correctly pick the winner of each NFL game, so we will lean toward the wise old oddsmakers to help sift through both the AFC and NFC playoff fields. Below, you will find a brief recap of the playoff field followed by positional rankings and recaps to help you craft the best possible postseason lineup. Good luck!


Top Bets


New England and Dallas

The Patriots and Cowboys have the best shot at reaching the Super Bowl according to oddsmakers, which means each team would play three games if that were to come to fruition. Both teams rolled through the regular season and are showing little signs of weakness, so you will see New England and Dallas players very highly touted throughout the rankings below.


Four-Game Potential

Green Bay and Pittsburgh

The best scenario for fantasy postseason contests is snagging players from teams that could play four games, the maximum amount of action in the NFL playoffs. Two teams fit that bill this season as both the Steelers and Packers will play on Wild Card weekend and both teams have solid odds of reaching the Super Bowl. Pittsburgh is a huge favorite over Miami this weekend and would take on Kansas City in the divisional round, leaving just New England (most likely) in their path on the way to the Super Bowl and a fourth game.

The Packers were on fire to end the regular season, winning six-straight games while averaging 30.8 points per outing along the way. Green Bay opens up their postseason push at home against the Giants as 4.5 point favorites, and then would travel to Dallas in the divisional round as long as Seattle tops Detroit. No matter where Green Bay ends up playing after the Wild Card Round, they will be a dangerous team and a threat to advance to Houston while collecting four games for fantasy folks.

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Next Best

Atlanta and Kansas City

The Chiefs and Falcons were both awarded first-round byes and will wait until the smoke clears this weekend before finding out their Divisional Round opponents. Based on Wild Card point spreads, the Falcons are most likely to see Seattle, while the Chiefs will likely host Pittsburgh. Both teams are capable of winning those games, but tricky matchups plus difficult looming opponents in conference title games drop these two teams to a lower tier.


Wild Card Favorites

Seattle and Houston

Seattle is more than a touchdown favorite this weekend against Detroit, and will be looking at two games this postseason at a minimum. The Seahawks have been quite unpredictable this season, so a deep postseason run is certainly possible, as is an early exit. Houston is the favorite in the riveting “Connor Cook vs. Brock Osweiler” matchup the world has been clamoring for, and the winner of that game will likely head to New England to get beat by 30. Both Houston and Oakland fantasy options are dicey bets, but could see two games.


The Rest

Miami, NY Giants, Oakland, Detroit

These four teams are underdogs on Wild Card weekend, so the fantasy options from these squads have been discounted in the rankings below. When taking a stab on players from long-shot teams, be sure to look for upside that could swing a playoff contest if the team advances. Odell Beckham may only play one game this postseason, but has the ability to rack up a huge point total in just a single outing and could be a huge key to victory if the Giants advance.


Quarterbacks


1. Tom Brady (NE)
2. Dak Prescott (DAL)
3. Aaron Rodgers (GB)
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5. Matt Ryan (ATL)
6. Russell Wilson (SEA)
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7. Eli Manning (NYG)
8. Alex Smith (KC)
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10. Brock Osweiler (HOU)
11. Matt Moore (MIA)
12. Connor Cook (OAK)
13. Tom Savage (HOU)
14. Matt McGloin (OAK)

Notes: The AFC has little to offer in terms of quarterbacks, but Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger are very strong options. … With so much attention on the Green Bay hot streak and the success of Dallas, Matt Ryan may be a decent bargain in postseason pools, depending on the format. Ryan, who could see Seattle in the Divisional Round, threw multiple touchdown passes in 12 of 16 games this season and roasted the Seattle secondary in Week 6. … No matter who escapes the Houston/Oakland contest, it will be tough to bet on a quarterback in that matchup with Tom Savage and Matt McGloin potentially ready to step-in if their team advances. … Russell Wilson could see matchups with the Detroit and Atlanta defenses, which will be worth betting on if you believe in Seattle’s postseason potential. Wilson has never lost a home playoff game. … Manning and Stafford are underdogs this weekend while Smith could be in a tough spot against Pittsburgh in the Divisional Round. None of the three are very exciting options.

Running Backs


1. Ezekiel Elliott (DAL)
2. Le'Veon Bell (PIT)
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4. Devonta Freeman (ATL)
5. Tevin Coleman (ATL)
6. Dion Lewis (NE)
7. Ty Montgomery (GB)
8. Thomas Rawls (SEA)
9. Lamar Miller (HOU)
10. James White (NE)
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11. Spencer Ware (KC)
14. Latavius Murray (OAK)
13. Jay Ajayi (MIA)
14. Zach Zenner (DET)
15. Paul Perkins (NYG)
16. Rashad Jennings (NYG)
17. Alex Collins (SEA)
18. Aaron Ripkowski (GB)
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20. Darren McFadden (DAL)
22. Jalen Richard (OAK)
24. C.J. Prosise (SEA)
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25. Alfred Morris (DAL)
26. Alfred Blue (HOU)
27. Lance Dunbar (DAL)
29. Damien Williams (MIA)
30. Marcel Reece (SEA)
31. Jonathan Grimes (HOU)
33. Kenyan Drake (MIA)
34. James Starks (GB)

Notes: The running back position is light on top options, with Elliott, Bell, and Blount showing the most scoring and games played potential. The remainder of the list attempts to balance scoring upside with likely postseason longevity. … New England has sprinkled-in multiple backs in recent weeks with Blount leading the way, followed by Lewis as a change of pace option and White as a receiving threat. All three backs are worth a look in what should be a successful New England postseason run. … The third tier above is where we begin to look at players likely to play just one game, but who could pile up points if their team advances. Murray, Ajayi, and Perkins are solid targets with Spencer Ware available as a decent value. … C.J. Prosise could return in the Divisional Round if Seattle advances. In the right format, he could be worth a gamble. … Lamar Miller hasn’t played since Week 15 and could be an affordable option. Miller ran for 104 yards and a score against Oakland in Week 11 and could see two games if Brock Osweiler doesn’t completely melt down. …  With James Starks (concussion) still out, Ty Montgomery and Aaron Ripkowski have handled most of the rushing work for Green Bay, with Christine Michael mixed in. I would opt for Montgomery first of these options, but his shine as faded in recent weeks. Ripkowski is more of a touchdown-dependent gamble while Michael will continue to see minimal action.


Wide Receivers


1. Antonio Brown (PIT)
3. Dez Bryant (DAL)
4. Jordy Nelson (GB)
5. Julio Jones (ATL)
6. Davante Adams (GB)
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7. Doug Baldwin (SEA)
9. Odell Beckham (NYG)
10. Cole Beasley (DAL)
11. Eli Rogers (PIT)
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12. Taylor Gabriel (ATL)
13. DeAndre Hopkins (HOU)
14. Michael Floyd (NE)
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16. Michael Crabtree (OAK)
17. Amari Cooper (OAK)
18. Chris Hogan (NE)
19. Mohamed Sanu (ATL)
20. Tyreek Hill (KC)
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21. Golden Tate (DET)
22. Jarvis Landry (MIA)
23. Jeremy Maclin (KC)
24. Jermaine Kearse (SEA)
25. Randall Cobb (GB)
26. Marvin Jones (DET)
27. Sterling Shepard (NYG)
28. Anquan Boldin (DET)
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29. Cobi Hamilton (PIT)
31. Paul Richardson (SEA)
32. Justin Hardy (ATL)
33. Will Fuller (HOU)
34. Sammie Coates (PIT)
35. Brice Butler (DAL)
36. DeVante Parker (MIA)
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38. Kenny Stills (MIA)
39. Chris Conley (KC)
40. Aldrick Robinson (ATL)
41. Albert Wilson (KC)
42. Seth Roberts (OAK)
42. Victor Cruz (NYG)
43. Tanner McEvoy (SEA)
44. Danny Amendola (NE)
45. Wendall Williams (HOU)
46. T.J. Jones (DET)
47. Andre Roberts (DET)
48. Andre Holmes (OAK)
49. Keith Mumphery (HOU)

Notes: The wide receiver position looks far better than running back this postseason, with a large top tier leading things off. Wide receiver is where we see the most debate in the “points vs. games played” conundrum, with top options like Odell Beckham, Michael Crabtree, Amari Cooper, Jarvis Landry, and Golden Tate playing as underdogs in Wild Card games. Beckham and the Oakland duo seem most likely to swing an upset and advance, so I would lean toward those options. … Keep an eye on Randall Cobb’s status. Geronimo Allison could be a sneaky play if Cobb is out again. Allison hauled in eight passes for 157 yards in Weeks 16 and 17. … After Edelman, the New England receivers get tricky but I would still prefer Malcolm Mitchell as long as he is active, with Chris Hogan and Michael Floyd looking like deeper options who will likely have three games to make an impact. … Paul Richardson and Jermaine Kearse both saw seven targets in Week 17 with Tyler Lockett out and could be nice deeper selections. … Eli Rogers could be higher or lower on this list depending on Ladarius Green’s Wild Card Round status. … The Detroit receiving options look a bit better with Earl Thomas not in the Seattle secondary, but the Lions are big underdogs on the road and may have trouble seeing a second game.

Tight Ends


2. Jason Witten (DAL)
3. Jimmy Graham (SEA)
4. Jared Cook (GB)
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5. Travis Kelce (KC)
6. Ladarius Green (PIT)
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8. Eric Ebron (DET)
9. Levine Toilolo (ATL)
10. Luke Willson (SEA)
11. Richard Rodgers (GB)
12. Will Tye (NYG)
13. Jesse James (PIT)
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14. Ryan Griffin (HOU)
15. Clive Walford (OAK)
16. Dion Sims (MIA)
17. Austin Hooper (ATL)
18. Mychal Rivera OAK)

Notes: The tight end position looks fairly straightforward, with Jared Cook likely the best value of the top-tier players. Cook has averaged 4.3 receptions for 59.3 yards over the last three weeks as Green Bay’s offense has taken off. … Be careful with Ladarius Green (concussion), who missed Weeks 16 and 17 but could play this weekend. … C.J. Fiedorowicz is a solid middle-tier option and could see two games with respectable production no matter who is under center for Houston. … Luke Willson has scored twice in the last three weeks and is a decent dart throw as a deep option.


Kickers


2. Dan Bailey (DAL)
3. Mason Crosby (GB)
4. Matt Bryant (ATL)
5. Chris Boswell (PIT)
6. Cairo Santos (KC)
7. Steven Hauschka (SEA)
8. Robbie Gould (NYG)
9. Nick Novak (HOU)
11. Matt Prater (DET)
12. Andrew Franks (MIA)


Defense/Special Teams


1. New England
2. Dallas
3. Green Bay
4. Pittsburgh
5. Kansas City
6. Seattle
7. Atlanta
8. Houston
9. Oakland
10. New York Giants
11. Detroit
12. Miami

Notes: Both the kicker and D/ST ranks stick fairly close to the expected odds of each team to advance to Houston. More games means more chances to stack points, so New England and Dallas are the top plays here with Pittsburgh and Green Bay worthy gambles to escape Wild Card weekend and make a run.
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