via Mike Clay/ESPN.com.
The 2016 NFL regular season is still winding down, but it's never too
early to start thinking about next year. Included here is my first run
of 2017 rankings at the four primary fantasy football positions.
Obviously, a lot will change as a result of offseason research, coaching
changes, the draft and free agency, but this is an effort to get an
early look at what 2017 drafts may look like.
Additionally, many
of you are currently able to stash players in dynasty/keeper leagues.
This should help you make some tough decisions. Last year, 'Zero RB' was
cool, hip and in, and if you didn't follow suit, you were laughed at.
Now that those who picked
David Johnson,
Le'Veon Bell and
Ezekiel Elliott
are holding league trophies, and running back is making a comeback. But
will the pendulum swing too far back away from wide receiver? It's very
possible and, if it does, you should be looking to zig when your
opposition zags in an effort to maximize your roster.
Nonetheless,
the debate between running back and wide receiver at the top of drafts
rolls on. I think some of the disconnect comes because many analysts who
do the studies on 'Zero RB' are focusing on PPR leagues. In PPR, top
wide receivers will catch upwards of 80 more passes than some top-15
running backs. That's a huge gap and obviously inflates the value of the
position. You can't simply apply that 'zero RB PPR' strategy, however,
to non-PPR without making adjustments. Consider that the average point
total of the top-15 scoring running backs through Week 16 is 212. The
average wide receiver total is 162. No. 1 scoring RB David Johnson has
scored 323 points, whereas top wide receiver
Antonio Brown has 201.
Regardless of any small sample size examples you feel the need to pontificate, running backs do
bust at a slightly higher rate
than wide receivers. That's a big deal in PPR leagues where the point
totals are similar atop the position. It makes the decision to go wide
receiver-heavy easy. In non-PPR leagues, that risk is offset a bit by
the higher scoring production of top-end running backs.
So, while
we can all agree that owning a top-end running back is of the utmost
importance on a week-to-week basis, the real trick is actually finding
that running back. And that is where the old school 'running backs score
more points so you're a fool if you don't go RB heavy' crowd tends to
go wrong. Because running backs get hurt more and miss more time when
they go down, it's easier to find competent backs on waivers than it is
wide receivers.
To put it another way, if you go WR heavy out of
the gate in a non-PPR draft, your leaguemates who went RB heavy will
probably end the draft with a roster projected to score a few more
points than your squad. However, as injuries happen, you will have a
much easier time adding value to your lineup, closing the gap and
hopefully ending up with the best squad when it counts most. As the
aforementioned link shows, top-scoring fantasy backs are easier to find
than receivers in later rounds.
Entering 2017 drafts, my advice
will be the same as it was last year: Don't be stubborn and attach
yourself to one set strategy. You'll only end up handcuffing your
ability to maximize your starting lineup. Go in with a game plan, but be
prepared to adjust to the flow of the draft.
Included here are my
non-PPR top-50 quarterbacks, top-70 running backs, top-100 wide
receivers, top-50 tight ends and top-50 overall players as we head into
the offseason -- as well as some quick notes on each position.
Quarterback
- Rodgers
started slowly, but ended up blowing away the field at quarterback this
season. Just keep in mind that Green Bay went super pass-heavy and
that's likely to level out a bit next year. He's my top 2017 quarterback
option, but I won't be pouncing on a passer before, at least, the fifth
round.
- Ryan's efficiency is off the charts and he, like Carson Palmer last year, is going to come back to earth. He's still a QB1, but more of a midpack option.
- I posted an absurdly early set of these ranks back in September and you cats thought I was too cute in ranking Dak Prescott at No. 11. As it turns out, I was too low.
- Newton
and the Panthers are candidates for a rebound next year, but Newton's
passing struggles are enough to make him more of a borderline QB1
target. Wentz is a good candidate to throw downfield more and add points
with his legs next season.
- The likes of Taylor, Romo,
Cutler and Kaepernick will have their landing spot move the needle on
their ranking, so I'm hedging a bit at the moment.
- Garoppolo, Glennon and possibly even Geno Smith
are the best bets among clear backups to land a starting gig on the
open market or via trade this offseason. However, none figure to see a
huge boost in value as a result.
Running back
- Johnson,
Bell and Elliott will be top-three players off the board in nearly
every 2017 fantasy draft. The question remains, though, in what order
you should take them. Elliott's lack of usage as a receiver is just
enough of a factor for me to move Johnson and Bell ahead, but "Zeke" is
younger and is a capable pass-catcher, so his role could expand in that
area. Johnson vs. Bell is extremely close, but Johnson has been slightly
better on a per-game basis and he doesn't have as many
off-the-field/injury question marks.
- Behind the "big
three" is where it gets tricky. Howard emerged into a star this year
and, although he does have some concerns as a receiver, he's so dominant
running the ball that he belongs in the top-five discussion.
- I'll
probably end up high on Ajayi, but Miami should return most of its
personnel to a run-first offense that allowed Ajayi over 20 carries per
game once he became the starter. The NFL leader in yards-after-contact
is primed for a complete breakout next year.
- Gordon is likely to lose passing-down work to a healthy Danny Woodhead and it's hard to bank on the absurd amount of work he saw at the goal line.
- McCoy
and Murray feel like safe picks late in the first round, but I'm
definitely concerned about the heavy workloads, combined with the fact
that both will be 29 years old. They are assets at their peak value, but
on the verge of a sharp decline. That's a scary investment. Meanwhile,
Gurley is simply too talented to remove from the RB1 discussion.
- Anderson is a tremendous talent and Booker's struggles all but assure he'll return to lead back duties.
- Could Charles return and disrupt Ware's workload? It's a possible scenario, but for now, I'm betting on Ware as the lead man.
- Lacy was terrific in 2016 before his injury and I think his most likely outcome is a one-year deal with Green Bay. Buy low.
- The Redskins could add a more dynamic feature back, but I'm a huge "Fat Rob" fan. I expect him to keep the lead-back job.
- Don't forget about Abdullah, who was a 2016 breakout candidate before injury. He will be a terrific midround target.
- Dixon
and Perkins are realistic candidates to be atop their respective depth
charts in 2016, but both Baltimore and New York very easily could
address the position in the draft.
- Don't just assume Henry will play a bigger role in 2017, but he's obviously an elite handcuff.
- Will Peterson and Forte land feature back roles somewhere in 2017?
- Richard was a big-time playmaker and elite after contact as a rookie. He's a sneaky buy low with Latavius Murray headed to free agency.
Wide receiver
- Hey,
some consistency in fantasy football! It's the same as last year, with
Beckham, Brown and Jones making up the top tier of wide receivers. I'll
be picking 24-year-old Beckham over 29-year-old Brown, but it's close.
- Cooper
was a bit of a disappointment this year, but he's only 23 years old and
a candidate for an even larger target share next year with Crabtree set
to turn 30 during the season.
- As 2016 has proven, Drew Brees can certainly support a pair of top-15 fantasy receivers in Cooks and the emerging Thomas.
- I'm going to be a bit low on Jordy Nelson because I'm scared of his age. There aren't many 32-year-old stud fantasy receivers, but certainly Aaron Rodgers' top target is a contender to defy the odds and post another WR1 season. Still, I'm hedging some.
- The
ADPs of 2015 studs/2016 busts Hopkins and Robinson will be very
interesting. My thought is that we're looking at two young, very
talented wide receivers who are featured in their respective offenses.
Both should be viewed as rebound candidates and back-end round-two
targets. Watkins, Allen, Decker and Jeffery are too good at football to
not bounce back in a big way.
- Coleman and Shepard are locked into huge roles in their respective offenses and Tyreek Hill and Josh Doctson
round out the top-five second-year receivers in the ranks. Doctson's
value will depend on whether or not Jackson and/or Garcon are re-signed.
- Martavis Bryant
will push as high as the WR2 discussion if he's reinstated. Gordon may
as well, but he'll need to compete with Coleman and Pryor in an offense
unlikely to have an impact quarterback.
- White and
Treadwell will be terrific post-hype fliers and Mitchell is a strong
breakout possibility as an every-down player in New England.
Tight end
- Gronkowski
will have the offseason to get healthy and, although his injuries have
been a pain, keep in mind that he finished three straight weeks as the
top-scoring tight end when healthy this season. No other tight end had
more than two on the year. He'll be 28 years old and is an absolute
stud. He's worth a look at the second/third-round turn.
- Similarly,
Reed is dominant when healthy and Kelce took his game to a new level
this year. Both should be targeted in the fourth round.
- Henry will be the
popular tight end breakout of the 2017 season, especially if the
Chargers move on from Gates. Unfortunately, this probably means Henry
will be too pricey at his ADP.
- Sneakier late-round breakout candidates will be second-year Higbee, Hooper and DeValve.
Overall
I'm
on board with the one-two-three punch of Johnson, Bell and Elliott at
the top of the draft, but just remember -- and this is one of the
enigmas of fantasy drafts -- that you're drafting these players at or
near their ceiling. David Johnson is an absolute fantasy stud, but he's
not a realistic candidate to repeat his 2016 performance. Think 2016
Antonio Brown. He's fantasy's top-scoring wide receiver but many will
tell you he disappointed. Why? Because he was at his ceiling during
2014-15 and couldn't match that production.
It was considered silly to take
Mike Evans over
Allen Robinson
back in August for the same reason. Of course, players who are at their
ceiling will often be picked early in drafts. Someone has to come off
the board first and those are generally the players who have the most
appeal. It's probably the very best defense for those in favor of
auctions. This isn't my way of saying that Johnson is a poor pick at
1.1, but don't bank on another 16 games and 300-plus points. It's not
the most-likely outcome.
If anything, just be careful not to
overvalue a player who was at his ceiling last year (and vice versa). An
example of this would be selecting
Melvin Gordon over
Jordan Howard
on the grounds that Gordon will repeat his obscene 2016 usage,
especially near the goal line, and Howard "only scored seven
touchdowns." That's not to say Gordon is definitely a worse pick than
Howard, just that you need to determine realistic expectations and
outcomes for each player before making a selection. Consider a player's
ceiling and floor, as well as potential roadblocks to achieving either
outcome.
