By DANE MARTINEZ
Fantasy Sports Network
As you get ready to draft this year you’re going to hear a lot about post-hype sleepers, dynasty stashes, and new signings. Here’s the truth: Go for the guys you believe in so you’re not saying “shoulda, woulda, coulda” in four months.
That said, here are cases for some players to avoid this year, so forget about them and get someone else in the tier with confidence.
QUARTERBACK
Dak Prescott, Cowboys
First, there’s the suspension of Ezekiel Elliott, which is still not set in stone in terms of how it will play out this season for fantasy purposes. There’s reason to fade Prescott no matter how that plays out. He’s a longshot to repeat his four interceptions from his rookie year. For context, Aaron Rodgers and 2017 MVP Matt Ryan had seven picks last year. There’s natural sophomore regression coming and defenses could focus more on the passing game without Elliott playing.
Andrew Luck, Colts
In general, it’s not advisable to draft any quarterback early. Instead, wait and get two of the guys you think are between 10th and 15th best at the position, then hope one overperforms. If you prefer to take a top guy, at least go for someone who’s on the field. The news on Luck’s shoulder recovery gets more clouded each week and now the team is saying he may not be ready for Week 1. He’s a top 5 QB when healthy but taking the risk at that price is a boom or bust play. The loss of center Ryan Kelly and the improvements of defenses around the division don’t help either.
RUNNING BACK
Carlos Hyde, 49ers
The key here is the new regime in San Francisco. New coach Kyle Shanahan personally advocated for speedster draft pick Joe Williams, and there’s been more excitement over him than the often-injured incumbent who may not fit the new scheme. He may beast in Week 1, but that’s shown to be a facade in the past. Veteran Tim Hightower is also lurking.
Ty Montgomery, Packers
When you look deeper here you also see a rookie who could threaten opportunity, especially by the second half of the year when you need your RB for the fantasy playoffs. Montgomery was converted from wide receiver — new uniform number and all — and won’t stand up to the rigors of an NFL season inside the tackles. Enter rookie Jamaal Williams, who is getting praise for his pass protection — usually a hard element for rookies to grasp quickly. He’ll be the Packers RB to own down the stretch.
WIDE RECEIVER
Jarvis Landry, Dolphins
Landry is a case study in knowing your league settings. He’s averaged 96 catches over the last three years, so Landry will still give you solid production in point-per-reception leagues. But he is someone to avoid in standard settings. The change to Jay Cutler could also lead to a breakout season for Landry’s counterpart, DeVante Parker, whom Cutler (a QB known to lock in on one guy for a majority of targets) already called “a faster version of Alshon Jeffery.” The low yards per catch average for Landry also doesn’t fit Cutler well, so pick Julian Edelman or Stefon Diggs instead for that volume PPR role on your team.
T.Y. Hilton, Colts
This one is definitely connected to Luck, but even without that, regression from his league-leading 1,448 receiving yards last season should be expected. Praised for being able to get into and out of his breaks better than any wideout in the NFL, it may not matter if Scott Tolzien is under center (see DeAndre Hopkins targets and receptions with Brock Osweiler last year). The other consideration is that Donte Moncrief should be healthy for more than nine games as a legit WR2 option on the other side, further eating into Hilton’s share. To fill your bottom-end WR1 need, look to breakout candidate Michael Thomas, Drew Brees’ No. 1 option, or a potential bounce back from Hopkins.
TIGHT END
Delanie Walker, Titans
The Titans are a team that could surprise in 2017, but with the growth of third year QB Marcus Mariota and more weapons on the outside (Eric Decker and rookie Corey Davis), there may be a subtle shift away from the exotic smash-mouth philosophy of last season. The ripple effect could mean less focus on Delanie Walker, who was tied with Rishard Matthews for the team lead with 65 catches. Decker has historically been a TD threat and Walker also is entering his age 33 season. There’s no reason to think he improves on, or even sustains his 800 yards or seven TDs from last year. I prefer taking a chance on an ascending TE like Eric Ebron in Detroit or Hunter Henry for the Chargers.
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This column was provided to The Associated Press by the Fantasy Sports Network, http://fntsy.com/
One key to drafting a winning fantasy football team is to construct a roster with as much depth as possible at almost every position.
To accomplish this goal, you need to have a firm grasp of the talent at each position relative to the other positions across the entire player pool. People new to fantasy football often think that because there are so few elite quarterbacks, and they are among the highest scoring players in the fantasy game, that they need to pick a top quarterback early in their draft to build a strong foundation for the rest of the team.
Experienced fantasy owners know that you can wait until later in the draft to pick a quarterback. Most leagues require just one starting quarterback, and the majority award just 4 points for a touchdown pass. Meanwhile, you typically start two or three running backs and an equal number of wide receivers — and those positions are awarded 6 points for each touchdown reception or run. Therefore, wide receivers and running backs are chosen earlier, the pool of available players shrinks much faster at those positions and there are enough viable starting quarterbacks available even if you wait until later into the draft to choose one.
Quarterbacks will dominate the overall scoring one way or another, but it really isn't about getting the most points out of the position. This approach changes slightly in leagues that award 6 points for a touchdown pass. You'll need to adjust your draft strategy to take quarterbacks just a bit earlier. However, in leagues that require two starting quarterbacks, you must change your approach to draft your quarterbacks much earlier, ideally to have both safely squared away by the end of the fourth round. You'll need to do that because the demand for talent will be that much higher with the available pool being much smaller.
Some fantasy owners like the security that comes with owning a bona fide veteran quarterback with an extensive track record of elite production. If you still want to target Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, or Drew Brees, widely thought of as the elite tier of the current QB pool, you should be prepared to draft them within the first three or four rounds. An aggressive move like that will also require you to be prepared to find hidden talent deeper in the player pool at wide receiver and running back. Just remember that every draft is different, so you'll need to be flexible and adjust on the fly depending on how things unfold.
The next tier of quarterback talent can be found a bit later in the single-digit draft rounds. Matt Ryan, Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson could yield near-elite production but the players aren't quite as secure as the elite for one reason or another. For instance, Ryan is coming off a career year, something he may have difficulty repeating. Wilson still has a porous offensive line that allowed too many sacks. Andrew Luck had some incredibly poor pass pass-blocking that left him scrambling and diving for cover. Dak Prescott, Kirk Cousins and Cam Newton also fit in just after these players in average draft positions (ADP) on most sites.
Other talents that can be found in the double-digit rounds include Derek Carr, a top 10 QB available in approximately the 10th round. Then there's Marcus Mariota, whose new weapons could help him step forward in his development this year. A little closer to Rounds 11 and 12 are Matthew Stafford or Jameis Winston. Philip Rivers has a current ADP in the 14th round. Drafting him there could leave you the collateral to take some very talented receivers who would love to snag one of his 33 TD strikes.
There is still some very talented QB depth to be found in the mid-teen rounds. Tyrod Taylor beats defenses with his feet as well as his arm, running for 580 yards last season. And don't forget Eli Manning, who could be in line for a bounce-back season, and Carson Wentz, who has an improved receiving group. Carson Palmer still has excellent receivers and he appears primed to go out with a bang in what could be his final season.
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This column was provided to The Associated Press by the Fantasy Sports Network, http://FNTSY.com/
Jeremy Hill managed 26 yards on seven carries, and Joe Mixon rushed six times for 31 yards and caught an 11-yard pass in the Bengals' preseason opener.
Giovani Bernard (knee) sat this one out, so Hill largely dominated work with the first-team offense.
Mixon did mix in on the Bengals' opening drive, however, and he has a lot of room for movement up the depth chart.
In both the run and pass games, the difference between Hill and Mixon is night and day.
Hill played first, but Mixon mixed in twice on the Bengals' opening drive and appears to be a part of the first-team offense, even if he's not yet the "starter." Mixon showed nifty feet and superb vision on his carries and turned a short checkdown in the flat into an 11-yard gain by breaking a pair of open-field tackles. The rookie also executed in blitz pickup.
It's only a matter of time before Mixon takes over this backfield.
Alex Smith completed 4-of-6 passes for 48 yards and rushed once for 10 yards in the Chiefs' preseason opener.
Smith only played one series, but that was all he needed. He came out of the gate hot, hitting Tyreek Hill deep down the right sideline for a 32-yard gain, and also converted a first-down on a 10-yard scamper.
He almost threw an interception in the red zone, but it was still an impressive opener.
Undrafted in standard leagues, Smith looks like a value in an offense which wants to push the ball downfield more this season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Mike Evans caught 4-of-7 targets for 58 yards in two drives of action in the Bucs' preseason opener.
Evans dominated the game’s opening possession, hauling in three passes for 52 yards including a 29-yarder where he beat Darqueze Dennard one on one.
Evans lost consecutive end-zone targets against Adam Jones to close out the drive, however, forcing the Bucs to settle for a field goal. Nevertheless, it was encouraging to see Jameis Winston pepper Evans with five first-drive targets and two more on the second possession.
Evans should be one of this year's top-seven fantasy receivers drafted, along with Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Odell Beckham, A.J. Green, Jordy Nelson, and Michael Thomas.
Dallas Cowboys RB Elliott has been suspended six games by the NFL for violating the league's personal conduct policy after multiple domestic violence incidents.
Elliott has three days to appeal the suspension and is expected to do so, ESPN reports. The six-game ban is the penalty for first-time offenders of the league's new domestic violent policy. Should the suspension be upheld, Elliott is eligible to return to the Cowboys' roster on Oct. 23 and play in Week 8 against the Redskins.
TMZ obtained eight photos of bruising on the body of suspended Elliott's domestic abuse accuser. This certainly won't help Elliott's chances of winning an appeal. Ex-girlfriend Tiffany Thompson took photos of bruising on her arms, hands, neck, and legs following the alleged domestic incident. At the time, Elliott told police officers the woman was injured during a bar fight with someone else.
BEREA, Ohio – Although there was some early drama with injuries and some curiosity when he lined up with the third stringers, first overall draft pick Myles Garrett is the starting left defensive end for the Cleveland Browns.
Head coach Hue Jackson finally made it official after Garrett was bouncing back and forth between the first and second unit in practice. When he practices with the second team he works against 10-time Pro Bowl tackle Joe Thomas -- when Thomas practices.
"It's just back and forth," Jackson said. "It's nothing. I think we know that Myles is a starter on our football team. So I think that's the end of that discussion."
However, there was plenty of discussion in June when Garrett injured his left foot while pass rushing quarterback Brock Osweiler. Garrett landed awkwardly on his left foot as he extended toward Osweiler and fell to the ground, where he was assessed by a trainer. Garrett limped into the fieldhouse with teammates at the conclusion of the session.
The next day the injury was diagnosed with a lateral foot sprain following an evaluation by Cleveland team physician Dr. James Voos and Dr. Robert Anderson, a foot and ankle specialist. The Browns signed Garrett to a four-year deal worth $30.4 million.
– It happens every year: an unknown wide receiver jumps out of the pack and plays well. This year that player is Jordan Leslie, 6-foot-1, 205 pounds from Brigham Young.
Leslie was Brock Osweiler's primary target during a two-minute drive in an intra-squad team scrimmage. He caught four passes for 53 yards to set up a field goal.
"Jordan is a playmaker," Osweiler said. "Jordan has been making plays since the spring. He's someone I have a ton of confidence in. I told the coaches that. He consistently catches the football."
Leslie suffered a setback in practice Saturday when he took a shot to the head but he was back at practice Monday. He caught a deep pass from DeShone Kizer down the right sideline.
– Browns defensive coordinator Gregg Williams was able to exhale on Monday when the Browns returned from a day off and starting middle linebacker Chris Kirksey was back on the field.
Kirksey, the Browns leading tackler in 2016 with 143 stops, suffered a leg injury on the third play of the intra-squad scrimmage Friday. He did not return, but showed no ill-effects from the incident on Monday.
– Rookie Jabrill Peppers has taken the lead on winning the job as the Browns punt returner. He displayed some shifty moves on one return during the team's intrasquad scrimmage on Friday. That competition was more realistic than a normal practice because the players were in full pads and the tackling was live.
Peppers, battling for playing time at safety, also has helped his cause with some solid hits in practice when he is on defense and the players are in full pads.
"I saw him smack a couple of people, which is good," Jackson said. "That's who he is and that's what we think he'll bring to the table. I thought he caught the punts really well and kickoffs. Jabrill is a good football player. He's going to contribute to this team."
Peppers returned kicks in practice Monday and could end up with that role, too.
Notes: Wide receiver Rasheed Bailey, 6-foot-1, 205 pounds, was signed. Bailey signed with the Eagles as an undrafted rookie in 2015. He spent time on the Jaguars' practice squad ... Tight end Nate Lese, a 6-foot-2, 249 pound linebacker at UCLA for two years before being switched to tight end, was signed. He caught 49 passes for 569 yards and seven touchdowns in college ... Wide receiver James Wright was waived injured (pulmonary contusion) ... Defensive lineman Jamal Marcus was waived ... Tight end Randall Telfer is listed as a starter and head coach Hue Jackson touts his blocking ability.
